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Analysis of Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Egyptian Economy

The United Nations Development Programme’s Millennium Development Goal Achievement Fund (MDG-F) was established in 2007 to support efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) worldwide. The fund supports activities across a range of sectors and regions.

Through the MDG-F’s Climate Change Risk Management in Egypt program, several United Nations agencies are working with the government of Egypt to simultaneously address climate change and contribute to the MDGs.

On behalf of this program, Abt Associates staff conducted an analysis of the potential economic impacts of climate change on Egypt’s economy. They conducted some new original research and combined it with information from the Egyptian government and other sources to estimate the economic consequences of climate change impacts on water supplies, agriculture, sea level rise, air quality, and tourism. The study was not comprehensive, but it estimated that economic losses and damages could be equivalent to approximately 2 to 6 percent of future gross domestic product.

Key findings, presented at an April 2013 workshop in Cairo, included:

  • Agricultural production was estimated to decrease by 8 to 47 percent by 2060, with reductions in agriculture-related employment of up to 39 percent;
  • Welfare losses in agriculture in 2060 were estimated to range from 40 to 234 billion Egyptian pounds (EGP);
  • The value of the Nile River Delta property threatened by sea-level rise could be between 7 and 16 billion EGP;
  • Increased particulate matter concentrations and heat stress could result in approximately 2,000 to 5,000 more deaths per year, with an equivalent loss of 20 to 48 billion EGP per year; and
  • Higher temperatures could shift tourist demand to more northern locations and damage coral reefs, resulting in a reduction of annual tourist revenues by 90 to 110 billion EGP.

Read more about the analysis:
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Egyptian Economy

“Egypt’s Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change,” Climate Research 62:59–70, Smith, J.B., B.A. McCarl, P. Kirshen, R. Jones, L. Deck, M. Abd Rabbo, M. Borhan, A. El-Ganzori, M. El-Shamy, M. Hassan, I. El-Shinnawy, M. Abrabou, M. Kotb Hassanein, M. El-Agizy, M. Bayoumi, and R. Hynninen, 2014.  

“Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies in Egypt’s Agricultural Sector,” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. doi: 10.1007/s11027-013-9520-9, McCarl, B.A., M. Musumba, J. Smith, P. Kirshen, R. Jones, A. El-Ganzori, J.M. Ali, M. Kotb, I. El-Shinnawy, M. El-Agizy, M. Bayoumi, and R. Hynninen. 2013.

Middle East & North Africa